Nursing Research and Delphi Technique
Delphi Technique and Use
The
Delphi technique is a research method used to identify key issues, to set
priorities, and to improve decision making through aggregating the judgments of
a group of individuals.
The technique consists of using a series of mailed
questionnaires to develop consensus among the participants without face-to-face
participation. It provides the opportunity for broad participation and prevents
any one member of the group from unduly influencing other members’ responses.
Feedback is given to panel members on the responses to each of the
questionnaires. Thus, panel members communicate indirectly with each other in a
limited, goal-directed manner.
Historical Overview
The
first questionnaire that is mailed asks participants to respond to a broad
question. The responses to this questionnaire are then used to develop a more
structured questionnaire. Each successive questionnaire is built on the
previous one.
The second questionnaire requests participants to review the
items identified in the first questionnaire and to indicate their degree of
agreement or disagreement with the items, to provide a rationale for their
judgments, to add items that are missing, and to rank-order the items according
to their perceived priority.
On return of the second questionnaire the
responses are reviewed, items are clarified or added, and the mean degree of
agreement and the ranking of each item are computed.
In the third
questionnaire, participants are asked to review the mean ranking from the
second questionnaire and again to indicate their degree of agreement or
disagreement and give their rationale if they disagree with the ranking.
Additional questionnaires are sent until the group reaches consensus. Many
variations of this procedure have been used; the number of questionnaires used
to range from three to seven.
Requirement of Delphi Technique
To
be eligible to participate as a panelist in a Delphi study the respondent
should
(a) be personally concerned about the problem being studied
(b) have
relevant information to share
(c) place a high priority on completing the
Delphi questionnaire on schedule
(d) believe that the information
compiled will be of value to self and others ( Delbecq , Van de Ven, &
Gustafsen , 1975).
Disadvantages of Delphi Technique
Several
disadvantages of the Delphi technique limit its application. First, there must
be adequate time for mailing the questionnaires, their return, and their
analysis.
Second, participants must have a high level of ability in written
communication. And third, participants must be highly motivated to complete all
the questionnaires.
First Use of Delphi Technique
The
Delphi technique was first developed by the Rand Corporation as a forecasting
tool in the 1960s, when researchers found that results of a Delphi survey
produced better predictions than round-table discussions.
The technique was
later used to solicit opinions from experts on atomic warfare as a means of
defense. It has since been applied in diverse fields, such as industry, social
services, and nursing because of its usefulness and accuracy in predicting and
in prioritizing.
Delphi Technique In Nursing
The
Delphi technique has been used in nursing studies to identify priorities for
practice and research.
The American Nurses Association Center for Nursing
Research (1980) used the technique to identify national research priorities for
the 1980s; Demi, Meredith, and Gray (1996) used it to identify priorities for
urological nursing research; Lew- and owski and Kositsky (1983) and Lindquist
and colleagues (1993).
Used it to identify research priorities for critical care
nursing; and Lindemann (1981) surveyed members of the American Academy of
Nursing to identify and prioritize issues important to nursing in the next
decade.
In a creative application of the method Demi and Miles (1987) attempted
to achieve consensus on the parameters of normal grief by enlisting a panel of
experts in the field of grief and mourning.